It’s A Long Season……But Then Again

May 6, 2011

The Brewers have played only 31 games into a 162 game season. They have a dismal record, 13-18. Still it’s been only 31 games. The Crews’ poor start has to be put into perspective.

First, there are still 131 games to go. Of course, that’s 131 games of 162. By my math 20% of the season is over.

No problem. It’s not how many games they play. It’s a matter of how many they win. Assuming a final record of 90-72, a club would have a winning percentage of .555. Hey, you don’t have to be the Big Red Matheen to hit that target.

Of course, with a start of 13-18, the Brewers would have to go 77-54 or a winning percentage of .587. Not easy. 

Forget the pure math. A winning percentage among the NL Central clubs should be enough. Although .555 might be just a little shy in the division based upon the past 2 years – Cincy in 2010 (.562) and St. Louis in 2009 (.562). And the Cards are at .563. So 90 wins might be just a little short.

Only the Cubs pierced the .565 the division’s winning percentage barrier in recent years. Chicago had a .602 winning percentage in 2008. The Brewers finished that season with a .556 winning percentage and a Wild Card invite to Philly.

A Wild Card finish this season could be possible but for the 5 or more contenders. At this point, based upon winning percentage, you can ID the Marlins (don’t laff), Braves (just swept the Brewers 4 in Atlanta), Reds (2010 Division Champs), and Giants (just World Champs). Then add the current division leaders – Phillies, Cards and Rockies. That’s 8 clubs including the Brewers.

That’s crowded. OK. Forget the Wild Card. Back to winning the division.

The Brewers are just 5 games behind the division lead! Sure, they are barely ahead of the Astros and have to climb over the Cubs, Pirates and Reds to get to the Cardinals. They won’t be in a two-team race for a month like the 1951 Giants and Dodgers (or even the Giants and Padres).  

But they do visit St. Louis this weekend for 3 games. Despite losing 6 in a row against the Astros and Braves, the Crew could turn it around. They might collect some two-out hits. Some one other than Braun and Fielder might drive in a run. May be none of them won’t get caught on the bases, booting the ball or throwing to the wrong base. Perhaps their bullpen won’t melt down. Maybe they can turn it around.

Forget the records and play. May be they can get 2 of 3.

It’s baseball. There are 131 games left. It’s a long season……

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